Location – Co-op Live, Manchester, England

Date – 05/04/2025

The heavyweight landscape is a brutal one, and for Joe Joyce, the signs of wear and tear have become increasingly apparent. His recent outings against Kash Ali and Derek Chisora, while resulting in a win and a loss respectively, painted a concerning picture. The once seemingly granite ‘Juggernaut’ appeared sluggish, his movements labored, and his punch output less impactful than in his earlier career. Against a fighter like Filip Hrgovic, these diminishing physical attributes will be severely tested.

Joyce has seemed to really slow over his past two fights against Kash Ali and Chisora, and that’s he wasn’t the fastest heavyweight to begin with. This lack of speed is becoming a significant liability against more mobile opponents.

Filip Hrgovic, while not without his own question marks, possesses the tools to exploit Joyce’s recent deceleration. The Croatian is notably quicker on his feet and demonstrates superior hand speed than Joyce. This advantage in the early rounds will be crucial. I anticipate Hrgovic utilizing his jab effectively, circling away from Joyce’s predictable advances, and landing sharp combinations. He’ll likely aim to build a significant lead on the scorecards in the first half of the fight, capitalizing on his speed differential to rack up rounds.

However, the story isn’t entirely straightforward. Hrgovic has consistently shown vulnerabilities in the endurance department and fades rapidly in the later rounds. When faced with adversity, he’s sometimes shown that he doesn’t have the grit then the fight turns against him. Joyce’s team, undoubtedly aware of this, will be strategising to weather the early storm, banking on Hrgovic’s stamina to wane and for “The Juggernaut” to find his range and land his trademark clubbing shots in the latter half of the contest. Joyce’s sheer size and relentless pressure, even at a slower pace, can be draining for any opponent.

Hrgovic has never shown big one-punch knockout power, compared to someone like Zhang who has the power and has stopped Joyce twice, so unless Joyce is completely shot I don’t see a knockout here. Similarly, Joyce’s victories have largely come through accumulation of punishment, grinding opponents down over time, as we saw in the career best win against Joe Parker. He isn’t known for sudden, highlight-reel knockouts.

I can see a fight where Hrgovic establishes an early lead through his better speed and footwork. He will likely frustrate Joyce in the initial rounds, landing cleaner shots and controlling the distance. The middle rounds will be more competitive, with Joyce potentially having moments of success as Hrgovic’s pace dips. However, I believe Hrgovic will have built up a sufficient enough lead and will manage to navigate the later rounds, perhaps relying on holding, to see out the victory on the judges’ scorecards.

Winner – Filip Hrgovic

Method of Victory – Points Decision

Odds/Return: 11/4 bet365, £10 returns £18.75. Pair with David Adeleye TKO for a 4/1 double

This fight feels like a pivotal moment for both men, but particularly for Joe Joyce. A loss here, especially a clear points defeat where he struggles to impose his will, would likely signal a significant decline and could very well be the final nail in the coffin of his aspirations at the top level of the heavyweight division, perhaps even his career.

While Joyce’s heart and determination are undeniable, I think Hrgovic will just do enough to take this on a points decision which will probably be the final nail in Joyce’s career. I believe Filip Hrgovic’s speed and early round dominance will be enough to secure him the win in Manchester.