The Joseph Parker vs. Daniel Dubois fight is a genuine 50/50 matchup, much closer than the bookmakers’ odds suggest.

This isn’t just another heavyweight clash; it would be a sellout headliner anywhere in the UK. Throw in the potential for an undisputed fight with Usyk for the winner, and this fight promises to live up to the excitement that has been building since its announcement.

Parker’s career has seen a resurgence thanks to his partnership with Andy Lee and George Lockhart. His recent wins, including a victory over Deontay Wilder (who had only lost to Fury at this point) and a gutsy performance against Zhilei Zhang (where he recovered from two knockdowns to win), demonstrate his improved form and resilience.

At just 24 years, 11 months, and 1 day old when he first won the vacant WBO title, Parker, while not quite in the top 10 youngest heavyweight champions (but not far off), has matured significantly, evolving both his boxing skills, physique, and fan appeal.

Dubois enters the fight as the betting favorite, but Parker is in peak condition and, arguably, possesses the best chance of putting the breaks on the Dubois juggernaut outside of Oleksandr Usyk. Parker’s also got a great chin; he’s never been stopped early in a fight. His only stoppage loss came late against Joe Joyce in a grueling battle where exhaustion played a major role.

Parker’s key to victory lies in nullifying Dubois’s powerful jab, one of his most potent weapons. He needs to establish his own power early, making Dubois hesitant to throw and disrupting his rhythm. If Parker can achieve this, he has a strong chance of taking Dubois into the later rounds, where Dubois’s relative inexperience (having never gone the full 12-round distance) could become a factor. Parker needs to drag Dubois into deep waters and test his stamina and desire.

While Parker possesses power, he isn’t a one-punch knockout artist, making a KO/TKO victory seem unlikely. However, he can break Dubois’s spirit and raise questions about his grit and will to win under pressure.

Dubois is coming off a career-best performance, a knockout of Anthony Joshua at Wembley Stadium in September 2024 to claim the vacant IBF title. He boasts an impressive knockout ratio, having stopped all but one of his opponents. His fast, heavy jab gave Joshua problems from the opening bell. If Dubois finds his rhythm, a brutal stoppage is a high possibility on Saturday night.

However, some question marks remain about the quality of Dubois’s wins. Jarrell Miller, while tough, was significantly overweight. Filip Hrgovic hasn’t lived up to the hype. And Dubois has had some less-than-convincing performances against opponents like Kevin Lerena. That said, he seems to have developed a newfound confidence in his ability to absorb punches. Combined with his raw power and speed, this makes him a dangerous heavyweight, one that Parker could struggle with in the early rounds if he can’t neutralise Dubois’s strengths.

This is a true 50/50 fight. While a dominant win for Dubois wouldn’t be surprising, I’m going with a Joseph Parker points decision.

Joseph Parker’s last 5 fights:

• Zhilei Zhang on March 8, 2024 (Won by majority decision)
• Deontay Wilder on December 23, 2023 (Won by unanimous decision)
• Simon Kean on October 28, 2023 (Won by knockout in the 3rd round)
• Faiga Opelu on May 24, 2023 (Won by TKO in the 1st round)
• Jack Massey on January 21, 2023 (Won by unanimous decision)

Daniel Dubois’ last 5 fights:

• Anthony Joshua on September 21, 2024 (Won by KO in the 5th round) 1
• Filip Hrgovic on June 1, 2024 (Won by TKO in the 8th round)
• Jarrell Miller on December 23, 2023 (Won by TKO in the 10th round)
• Oleksandr Usyk on August 26, 2023 (Lost by TKO in the 9th round)
• Kevin Lerena on December 3, 2022 (Won by TKO in the 3rd round)